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Paper · 1905.03806 · 2019

Think Globally, Act Locally: A Deep Neural Network Approach to High-Dimensional Time Series Forecasting

arXiv · PDF · Open in the Atlas

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We lifted 3 functions out of this paper's own repositories and ran 3 of them in a sandbox. "Ran" means the function executed on a synthesized input and returned a value. It is not a reproduction of the paper's results.

RepositoryRoleRan
rajatsen91/deepglo canonical 2 of 2
copy not recorded — 1 of 1
FunctionStatusWhere it lives
bool2str Ran rajatsen91/deepglo/run_scripts/run_electricity.py
pointer only (licence: NOASSERTION) · get_code("33b1599b41564b9c")
get_model Ran rajatsen91/deepglo/DeepGLO/DeepGLO.py
pointer only (licence: NOASSERTION) · get_code("43fdc90d40db6b9a")
str2bool Ran this paper's copy was not recorded; identical code first harvested from sajadn/Exemplar-VAE
pointer only · get_code("7c508037b40522af")

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Abstract

Forecasting high-dimensional time series plays a crucial role in many applications such as demand forecasting and financial predictions. Modern datasets can have millions of correlated time-series that evolve together, i.e they are extremely high dimensional (one dimension for each individual time-series). There is a need for exploiting global patterns and coupling them with local calibration for better prediction. However, most recent deep learning approaches in the literature are one-dimensional, i.e, even though they are trained on the whole dataset, during prediction, the future forecast for a single dimension mainly depends on past values from the same dimension. In this paper, we seek to correct this deficiency and propose DeepGLO, a deep forecasting model which thinks globally and acts locally. In particular, DeepGLO is a hybrid model that combines a global matrix factorization model regularized by a temporal convolution network, along with another temporal network that can capture local properties of each time-series and associated covariates. Our model can be trained effectively on high-dimensional but diverse time series, where different time series can have vastly different scales, without a priori normalization or rescaling. Empirical results demonstrate that DeepGLO can outperform state-of-the-art approaches; for example, we see more than 25% improvement in WAPE over other methods on a public dataset that contains more than 100K-dimensional time series.

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