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Paper · 2410.23499 · NeurIPS · 2024

Tangent Space Causal Inference: Leveraging Vector Fields for Causal Discovery in Dynamical Systems

Kurt Butler, Daniel Waxman, Petar Djurić

arXiv · PDF · Open in the Atlas

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autocorr_func_1d Not yet run KurtButler/tangentspaces/python/utils.py
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compress_df Not yet run KurtButler/tangentspaces/python/latent_tsci/experiments/Dpendulum/gruode_scores.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("d7e31697a7ff00fe")
embed_time_series Not yet run KurtButler/tangentspaces/python/latent_tsci/experiments/Dpendulum/gruode_scores.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("5ac066a67be06009")
embed_time_series Not yet run KurtButler/tangentspaces/python/latent_tsci/latentccm/causal_inf.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("7e8f863a84ebac0f")
estimate_threshold Not yet run KurtButler/tangentspaces/python/rossler_lorenz_sine_wave.py
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next_pow_two Not yet run KurtButler/tangentspaces/python/utils.py
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tsci_torch Not yet run KurtButler/tangentspaces/python/tsci.py
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Abstract

Causal discovery with time series data remains a challenging yet increasingly important task across many scientific domains. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) and related methods have been proposed to study time series that are generated by dynamical systems, where traditional approaches like Granger causality are unreliable. However, CCM often yields inaccurate results depending upon the quality of the data. We propose the Tangent Space Causal Inference (TSCI) method for detecting causalities in dynamical systems. TSCI works by considering vector fields as explicit representations of the systems' dynamics and checks for the degree of synchronization between the learned vector fields. The TSCI approach is modelagnostic and can be used as a drop-in replacement for CCM and its generalizations. We first present a basic version of the TSCI algorithm, which is shown to be more effective than the basic CCM algorithm with very little additional computation. We additionally present augmented versions of TSCI that leverage the expressive power of latent variable models and deep learning. We validate our theory on standard systems, and we demonstrate improved causal inference performance across a number of benchmark tasks.

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