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Paper · 2504.15942 · 2025

Adversarial Observations in Weather Forecasting

arXiv · PDF · Open in the Atlas

Code that ran

We lifted 19 functions out of this paper's own repositories and ran 16 of them in a sandbox. "Ran" means the function executed on a synthesized input and returned a value. It is not a reproduction of the paper's results.

RepositoryRoleRan
mlsec-group/adversarial-observations canonical 16 of 19
FunctionStatusWhere it lives
filter_boundaries Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/case_study_heat.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("4cc47f7ac849edf6")
filter_boundaries Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/case_study_rain.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("7a4d42fbf97494e7")
generate_arrows Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/case_study_wind.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("85435776c18edbf9")
get_day_progress Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/graphcast/data_utils.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("87c077e386d5bc14")
get_year_progress Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/graphcast/data_utils.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("b5873791a50ceac1")
load_ablation_data Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/generate_report.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("4add98e004001140")
load_original_data Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/generate_report.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("7f9c7e3200f28510")
mollweide_to_lat_lon Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/generate_weather_targets.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("4f7ead71448dfa1e")
select_precipitation Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/evaluate.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("9e8afd8a3be2fc40")
select_temperature Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/evaluate.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("5f19780cb60bcce0")
select_wind_speed Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/evaluate.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("4019ba2255cc23f9")
smooth Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/case_study_heat.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("fc190c4b4787b426")
smooth Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/case_study_wind.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("5b311a8c66c662aa")
to_svg_path Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/case_study_heat.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("e1e3d440dce57495")
to_svg_path Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/case_study_wind.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("4e35d01ab316d5c4")
tree_map_cast Ran mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/graphcast/casting.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("f023499579335842")
infer_floating_dtype Not yet run mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/graphcast/casting.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("bbfbc7f27f0dbf04")
load Not yet run mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/graphcast/checkpoint.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("3142cf9dc1ad062e")
match_ablation_and_original Not yet run mlsec-group/adversarial-observations/src/generate_report.py
code served (permissive licence) · get_code("dbdbe2a954f1104a")

Repositories linked to this paper

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Abstract

AI-based systems, such as Google's GenCast, have recently redefined the state of the art in weather forecasting, offering more accurate and timely predictions of both everyday weather and extreme events. While these systems are on the verge of replacing traditional meteorological methods, they also introduce new vulnerabilities into the forecasting process. In this paper, we investigate this threat and present a novel attack on autoregressive diffusion models, such as those used in GenCast, capable of manipulating weather forecasts and fabricating extreme events, including hurricanes, heat waves, and intense rainfall. The attack introduces subtle perturbations into weather observations that are statistically indistinguishable from natural noise and change less than 0.1% of the measurements - comparable to tampering with data from a single meteorological satellite. As modern forecasting integrates data from nearly a hundred satellites and many other sources operated by different countries, our findings highlight a critical security risk with the potential to cause large-scale disruptions and undermine public trust in weather prediction.

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